Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Audience estimates at the Glenn Beck rally skewed by philosophy

Attendance for the rally for Glenn Beck at the Washington Lincoln Memorial through the weekend are disputed. About half a million true believers arrived to “restore their honor,” Beck said. One million is the total touted by some Republican politicians. Crowd size is a metric used to either validate or repudiate the legitimacy of major political events. Supporters exaggerate the totals while detractors scoff at their naive optimism. But it’s unlikely that the ballpark figures thrown out by both sides accurately represent the angry white mob Beck summoned forth to sully the legacy of Martin Luther King at the time and place of his legendary “I have a dream speech” 47 years ago.

The rally for Glenn Beck attendance depends on who is taking a look at it

Glenn Beck rally attendance was predictably overestimated by Beck and right wing talking heads such as Joe Scarborough of MSNBC. Both said the crowd totaled at least 500,000 people. That’s not surprising, as outlined by coverage of Glenn Beck rally attendance by the Christian Science Monitor. The stated figures, as outlined by the Monitor, reflect the interests of those involved within the story. Rally organizers always say crowds were huge and bigger than expected. Those who are not in favor of the cause could be counted on to dismiss their assertions. Drama over such trivia emerges on cue. Following the “Million Man March” in October 1995, an official estimate of the guests by the National Park Service was about 400,000. The park service estimate angered the event’s promoters enough to threaten it with lawful action, an occurrence that helped the government determine it was not worth it to be part of such stories.

CBS Media looks for the reality

Glenn Beck rally attendance was substantial. People travelling to and from the Washington Mall overwhelmed the subway. Eschewing a mere estimate, CBS Media stepped up to hire an outfit called AirPhotoslive.com to conduct an aerial assessment. Photos were shot from above. The crowd spread from the Lincoln Memorial around the Reflecting Pool and over to the Washington Monument . After analyzing the images, the official AirPhotosLive estimate was around 87,000. The company gave its estimate a 9,000-person margin of error, so anywhere from 78,000 to 96,000 individuals were there.

Individuals will hear what they desire to hear

The morning after, Beck was saying between 300,000 and 500,000 showed up. Republican congresswoman Michelle Bachman, seeking to be seen and heard, announced “we’re not going to let anybody get away with saying there were less than a million here today — because we were witnesses”. But, it’s all much ado about nothing to Southern Fried Science. The blogger WhySharksMatter said an exact number makes no difference, given that Beck’s followers ignore facts and evidence anyway. He points out a Pew Research Center poll that found 18 percent of the country believes President Obama is a Muslim. If a lesson can be drawn from the issue, it is that politics and religion, specifically when mixed together, have nothing related to reality.

More on this topic

Christian Science Monitor

csmonitor.com

CBS

cbsnews.com

Southern Fried Science

southernfriedscience.com



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